[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO RESUME OVERNIGHT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W AND CONTINUING TO THU
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N11W 7N17W TO 5N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W 6N34W TO 2N45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC
AND OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE IS A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT MYERS
CONTINUING ALONG 26N87W TO 23N93W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 21N95W
TO 19N95W. A STRONG 1039 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES WITH AN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S OVER THE GULF. A
LOW LEVEL BAND OF COLD AIR IS MOVING S OVER THE FAR W GULF
COMPLIMENTS OF THE STRONG HIGH AND CAN BEEN SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF N AND W OF THE FRONT
WITH DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG
OR HAZE BEING REPORTED OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO TUXPAN MEXICO. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM NEAR 24N97W THU THEN MOVE N THU NIGHT AND FRI DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT E FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THEN MOVE N OF
THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WIDENING OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N
W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
TONIGHT THEN PULSE AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
DUE THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N W OF 50W.
A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W TO
27N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A WEAK 1020 MB LOW ALONG
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR WEST PALM BEACH AND CONTINUES ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N68W TO 23N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
30N34W. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THU. A WEAK N/S TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE E COAST
OF FLORIDA ON THU THEN DRIFT E THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON FRI AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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