[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73.5W AND
77W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 9 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN GALE-FORCE...AND THEN GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN AT THE 24-HOUR TIME IN THE FORECAST.
THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALSO AT
THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W...TO 8N18W 7N20W AND 4N25W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 4N25W TO 5N32W AND 4N39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SHALLOW AND SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...TO 25N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 25N84W TO 23N93W...TO 18N94W IN THE WESTERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 65W
FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.16 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS FROM TRADEWIND FLOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 71W FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 27N69W TO 23N70W AND 20N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FOG AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL START IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA...AND IT EVENTUALLY WILL BE PART OF A
MERGED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL END UP IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N84W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF
HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N20W TO
25N22W AND 22N31W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N31W TO 20N43W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N43W TO 17N50W...TO A 19N43W...TO A
CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N51W...TO
8N59W AT THE COAST OF GUYANA...AND 7N62W IN NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST
OF THE 31N20W 7N62W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N21W...TO 24N23W AND 21N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 21W.

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N66W TO 28N74W TO
SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES FOR
BERMUDA IS 0.06.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 71W FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 27N69W TO 23N70W AND 20N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N30W TO A 1029
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N40W...TO 25N64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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