[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W AND
EXTENDS TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO
TO 1N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN
16W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W.
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE NW
OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO CENTRAL FL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 70W TO 77W. TRADE WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND...WITH FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N54W RESIDES UNDER
A BROAD RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC S
OF 31N. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO 51W. AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 33W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N26W TO 24N35W TO 21N44W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 19N51W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75NM SE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 75NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N48W WHICH SUPPORTS
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 41W
AND 49W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE E ATLANTIC WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE FL/GA COAST WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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