[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
03N30W TO 03N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 17W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. S-
SE FLOW OF 5-10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF...WHICH IS CONVERGING
ALONG THE FRONT TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 EITHER
SIDE OF IT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE N OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE MORNING. ON WED
MORNING THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE W-SW GULF. NO MAJOR
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN OVERALL
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONSISTING OF RIDGING AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A FORMER COLD FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. INTERMITTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORMER COLD FRONT PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. INTERMITTENT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER HISPANIOLA
THROUGH THU NIGHT. RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 41N26W TO 30N25W
22N34W TO 20N44W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
19N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W-
28W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE W AND E OF THE FRONT. A
NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC TUE MORNING...HOWEVER NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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