[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N19W 4N18W 4N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N25W TO 4N33W AND TO
1N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W...AND FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 27N35W 19N46W 13N49W 6N50W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF
THE 32N34W 6N50W TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHALLOW AND SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...TO 27N90W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...CURVING TO 25N92W...19N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 21N100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 85W WESTWARD IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A DEEP SOUTH TEXAS 1023
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 20N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KBQX...
KXIH...KHHV...KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KGRY AND A VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG...
KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS AND
KDLP. ICAO STATION KEHC IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES AND
FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

CLEAR SKIES COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE CORPUS
CHRISTI AREA TO PALACIOS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE
COMMON IN TEXAS FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF PALACIOS TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND INCLUDING SMALLER NEARBY
COMMUNITIES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO PERRY FLORIDA.
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND RAIN ARE INCLUDED IN
THE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER FLORIDA
FROM BROOKSVILLE TO PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
IN PUNTA GORDA. LIGHT RAIN AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...JUST OFF THE COAST OF
JAMAICA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N63W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER THAT IS
NEAR 14N87W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N FROM 83W EASTWARD...
FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 60 NM TO 90
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N85W IN NICARAGUA TO 15N87W IN HONDURAS
TO 20N88W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
TRADEWIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.22 IN SAN JUAN IN
PUERTO RICO...0.11 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.02 IN ST.
THOMAS...AND 0.02 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS FROM TRADEWIND
FLOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
19N60W...TO 19N70W NEAR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. LIGHT
RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM A COSTA RICA/PANAMA ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START NEAR 25N76W NEAR THE BAHAMAS. NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 18 HOURS. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL END WITH EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N69W...ABOUT 120 NM TO
THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
27N35W 19N46W 13N49W 6N50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N34W 6N50W TROUGH. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 25N35W 20N45W 18N50W AND 19N60W.
THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 19N60W TO 19N70W NEAR THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W 26N30W 21N38W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N34W-TO-19N46W-TO-6N50W
TROUGH.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N36W TO
29N46W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N63W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR
23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER THAT IS NEAR 14N87W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N21W...TO
20N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net