[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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