[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 03N30W TO 05N46W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
FORT PIERCE TO VENICE. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N87W 25N30W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AT 29N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WHOLE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. 5-10 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON N OF THE FRONT...WHILE 10-15 KT E
TO SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS DUE
TO RETURN SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N60W TO S OF HISPANIOLA AT
17N74. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 80W-
84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE FRONT AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THE
ISLAND WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W
TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27N80W. THE FRONT VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N56W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N42W TO
20N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 41W-48W. A LARGE
1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N20W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N50W
ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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