[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N
BETWEEN 16W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 28N83W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 26N90W TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BASIN FROM
17N62W TO 16N67W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 17N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N75W TO
10N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR
LINE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF HISPANIOLA. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT
EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE
FRONTS AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN AND THE SHEARLINE WILL PERSIST ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 40N72W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 40N72W TO 29N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 34N
BETWEEN 66W-73W. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 49W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC TO
30N43W TO 22N50W TO 17N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 39N22W SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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