[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 05N33W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 18W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W TO 25N96W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO N MEXICO NEAR 28N103W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE
S OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 18N63W TO 18N76W. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS FROM 18N76W TO 10N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR LINE AND N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-77W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE
E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PREVAILING OVER
THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT AND
SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 51W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N44W TO 18N65W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAINLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-44W. A 1039
MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
39N23W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE W ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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