[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 4N...
TO 5N12W AND 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 4N30W AND
3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO 1N5W 2N8W 3N11W 3N16W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 16W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N64W 28N67W 23N77W TROUGH.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM 26N97W AT THE TEXAS COAST...TO THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KXIH...
KGHB...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS...IN GALVESTON...IN
TOMBALL...CONROE...AND THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. THE
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG AT THE KIAH SITE.
THE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING IN TOMBALL DURING THE LAST
OBSERVATION. THE VISIBILITIES ARE 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA. THE TAMPA
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR
LESS AND FOG. THE SARASOTA VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND HONDURAS AND
GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...FROM 70W EASTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 76W AND 85W FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N75W 14N80W 10N83W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 77W AND 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N63W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N73W IN NORTHERN HAITI...TO 17N79W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL
BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IT...AND A TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF IT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 28N67W AND 23N77W BETWEEN
ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 26N66W 23N77W...JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
WITHIN 160 NM TO 260 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT
BETWEEN 61W AND 74W...REACHING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF HAITI. A
POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM 28N TO 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN
54W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM TO
240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N63W
20N73W IN NORTHERN HAITI...TO 17N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N37W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N48W
20N50W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 20N TO
27N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 33W AND 41W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM SPAIN
AND PORTUGAL TO MOROCCO AND ITS COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N5W IN MOROCCO...TO 26N19W TO
31N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 24N37W MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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