[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W...TO 7N15W AND 4N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N24W TO 2N32W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N3E 2N4W 2N1W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
5W AND 8W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 23N18W 14N31W 4N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N66W 23N78W TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF 27N97W 26N89W 22N86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KATP...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS
AND FOG ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE NORTHERN HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA...WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND HONDURAS AND
GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...FROM 73W EASTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 17N78W 14N80W 11N82W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 78W AND 84W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W IN
VENEZUELA AND 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. LIGHT RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL
BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IT...AND A TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF IT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 27N75W AND
23N78W BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N65W 25N72W...TO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS WITHIN 160 NM TO 260 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT
BETWEEN 61W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N38W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N48W
20N50W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 20N TO
27N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N36W 23N35W 28N37W
30N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 32N
BETWEEN 26W AND 40W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN AFRICA SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N7W IN MOROCCO...TO 26N20W TO
31N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 25N38W MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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