[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 04N19W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 04N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 3N39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 125 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W TO 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THE FAIR WEATHER IS PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW GULF AS THE RETURN FLOW IS INTERACTING WITH ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE NW GULF WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL
OF HIGH PRESSURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND IS INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 18N77W TO 10N83W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 74W TO 83W.  NE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN NW OF THIS SURFACE
TROUGH. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE BASIN TO THE E
OF THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND ALSO EXTENDS WEST OF THE AXIS TO 80W...INCLUDING
MUCH OF JAMAICA AND WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND E CUBA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING THE SW
CARIBBEAN CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LESSER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SW BASIN ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT SINKING S TOWARD E CUBA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA THROUGH MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA
AND IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S TOWARD HISPANIOLA THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST N OF THE ISLAND ON MONDAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ENTIRE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 64W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO 25N65W TO NEAR 22N76W...
INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N62W TO
31N54W...SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N62W TO
20N73W...INCLUDING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N50W TO 21N51W WITH NO
CONVECTION NOTED. THIS TROUGH WILL SOON BE ABSORBED BY THE UPPER
TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N38W TO 20N37W AND IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 31W TO 39W. OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO 26N14W TO 30N32W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT
ARE N OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE W ATLANTIC WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 31N55W TO 22N60W. THE PORTION
OF THE FRONT TO THE W OF 65W WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TO
THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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