[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 25N31W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 22N27W TO 13N38W TO 21N51W.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE AZORES IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NE QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 26W-32W AND ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 23N-
32N BETWEEN 17W-25W. METEO FRANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE SHOWING
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA OF METEOR THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE
WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N28W TO 6N36W TO 8N43W TO 6N48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 17W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS EASTERN US SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR
27N78W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 21N90W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND EXTENDING TO
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. A SURFACE 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL US EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 15-20 KT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR
27N78W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 21N90W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. 10-15
KT TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 76W WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT ARE W
OF 76W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW WHICH
WILL INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH A 1014 MB
LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N78W TO 37N71W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS LOCATED FROM 29N70W TO 21N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM 34N51W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
N OF 25N BETWEEN 49W-51W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N31W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THIS CENTER TO 20N27W TO 13N38W TO 21N51W. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
LOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS... EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
W ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OUT NEAR 30N60W
TO THE E TIP OF CUBA INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
THROUGH WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW N OF IT. THE LOW IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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