[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 07N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 06N30W TO 06N40W TO 06N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 14W-26W AND FROM 04N-
09N BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER SE TEXAS. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.
N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT IS ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG
21N80W TO THE NE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. THE FRONT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN ELONGATED MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE FAR W ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING AS WELL
AS A PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 80W. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...
WESTERN DOMINICAN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THIS ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING OVER
EASTERN CUBA. AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE SW-W HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER LAND AND COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE FOR THIS
REGION THROUGH THU WHEN A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER EASTERN CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE SW N ATLC ALONG 30N71W TO NORTHERN CUBA
NEAR 22N79W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N68W TO 22N72W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS N OF 26N. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N51W TO 23N53W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF ITS AXIS. OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
1009 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 25N31W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 18N28W SW TO 14N36W TO 13N45W
TO 18N50W. FORMER GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS
DIMINISH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 17W-32W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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