[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 24N30W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N28W SW TO THE LOW TO 20N31W. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NE OF
THE AZORES IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF
THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 18W AND 33W. METEO FRANCE FORECASTS
CONTINUATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA OF METEOR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE
METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 08N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 07N30W TO 07N40W TO 06N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF...AND FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND OVER THE FL STRAITS. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE EASTERN GULF COVERING
THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS N FROM S AMERICA
AND COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE SE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 50
NM OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS CONVECTION FREE.
NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
TO EXTEND FROM THE BELIZE COAST TO EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

HISPANIOLA...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND TUESDAY FROM
THE NW WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS ISLAND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N76W TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W TO THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N71W TO THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W TO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N75W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
FARTHER EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 58W IS
PRODUCING A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ITS EAST WHICH
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 31N
BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A DEEP UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N30W SUPPORTS A 1008 SURFACE LOW NEAR
23N30W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THIS LOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL OUT NEAR 30N60W TO THE E TIP OF CUBA INCLUDING
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE FRONT. THE LOW IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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