[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE METEO FRANCE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
AREAS OF METEOR AND CAPE VERDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II.
THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A
SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 25N27W TO 24N29W...TO A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N29W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
23N29W TO 19N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N20W
TO 7N30W 6N40W AND 5N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 32W...FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 28W AND 30W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N37W 7N38W
6N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE MODERATE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N61W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM A 32N66W TRIPLE POINT...
TO 27N70W AND THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 23N80W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE
MEXICO COAST JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W
21N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF
JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND
80W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 84W AND 95W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF 31N82W 26N84W 23N90W 21N97W. THIS DRIER AIR
HELPS TO KEEP PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF MEXICO...SOUTHEASTWARD...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N77W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.08 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO THE NORTHERN COAST BETWEEN 70W AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...AND IN PANAMA FROM 80W EASTWARD.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N60W 16N70W 14N75W 11N80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W 21N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN EARLIER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO
12N91W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT FIRST WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL BE CONNECTED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO
25N52W TO 20N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N54W...TO 28N55W AND 24N56W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N43W 24N45W AND
18N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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