[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED BY A 1012 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 24N28W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N23W SW TO THE LOW TO
20N29W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 380 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN
THE NE QUADRANT. METEO FRANCE FORECAST CONTINUATION OF GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE AREAS OF METEOR AND CAPE VERDE. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS
IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 08N19W TO 07N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N35W TO 03N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N EAST OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE EASTERN GULF WHILE
RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION BEING ANCHORED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER TEXAS. EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF...DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. IN
THE WESTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...PATCHES OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 10-20 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

IN THE MIDDLE-LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN
WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE
UPPER-LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N73W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N75W. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SIMILAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 170 NM FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN PANAMA. AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. TRADES OF 5-20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERING
PORTIONS OF THE SW ATLC SUPPORT N-NE FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER THE
NW BASIN. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...HOWEVER DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND EXCEPT WESTERN
ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 16N75W...THUS
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI W AND SW ADJACENT WATERS.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
RAINSHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N63W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 24N74W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N76W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N55W TO
24N56W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 48W-52W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED GALE
FORCE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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