[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

METEO FRANCE IS FORECASTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE AREAS OF METEOR...CAPE VERDE...AND AGADIR TODAY. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TUE MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE
METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 08N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 07N31W TO 05N40W TO 05N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ACROSS
THE S GULF FROM 23N82W TO 21N92W THEN S TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM MAINLY N OF THE
FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE AND OVER THE NE GULF. N TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 10 KT ARE S OF
THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NW FROM S AMERICA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA IS PROVIDING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA AND OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO 19N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...OTHER THAN SOME
PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND W BASIN...WHILE E TO NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE OVER
THE E BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SE TOWARD HAITI MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W...AND THEN OVER THE S GULF.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. N TO NE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE SAME UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1006
MB LOW NEAR 34N54W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 31N55W
TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W TO
52W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N29W WITH A
1013 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N26W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO 19N28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NE
OF THE AZORES IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE N OF THE LOW.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW IN THE
E ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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