[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N57W
TO 28N56W TO 24N61W AND A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON THE AZORES
ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SE TO S GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 14 TO 21 FT IN E TO
SE SWELL. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

METEO FRANCE CONTINUE TO FORECAST GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREAS
OF METEOR AND CAPE VERDE TODAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY TUE MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE
WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 07N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 05N30W TO 04N40W TO 05N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 20W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W...THEN SW ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
22N88W TO 18N93W. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO
THE SW GULF. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NW FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE
OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. THE PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AND
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES COVER THE CENTRAL AND NW BASIN
WHILE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...TWO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE
ANALYZED...ONE ALONG 20N87W TO 15N87W AND ANOTHER FROM
25N73W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 18N75W. TRADES OF 5-15 KT
DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE
COVERING PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC SUPPORT N-NE FLOW OF 15 KT OVER
THE NW BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW BASIN TUE
NIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
RAINSHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N68W SW TO ANDROS
ISLAND NEAR 24N78W INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 25N73W TO NORTHERN JAMAICA ADJACENT WATERS WITH
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N56W TO 24N60W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 21N BETWEEN
46W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N23W TO 19N27W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 230 NM NW OF THE AXIS CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 17W-31W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND NEAR
30N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC
TUE NIGHT PREVAILING THROUGH WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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