[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N30W TO 5N46W. MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE- TO LOWER-
LEVELS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 5N-16N
BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
NE OF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 26N95W TO 18N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
CARIBBEAN TO THE NW GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES AND FOG N OF 27N W OF 91W. NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-15
KT COVER THE GULF E OF 92W. NE TO SE WIND FLOW OF THE SAME
MAGNITUDE IS OVER THE REMAINDER WESTERN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH SAT...THEN A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW AND SE CARIBBEAN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE MIDDLE- TO LOWER-LEVELS DOMINATES ACROSS THE WATERS. A
MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW BASIN COINCIDING
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N78W TO
10N79W WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE ATLC EXTENDS SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS IN THE SW AND NE
CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS MOIST AIRMASS ALONG
WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING AND
WILL REMAIN ACROSS SE ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N63W SUPPORT A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 25N60W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N63W. DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT COINCIDING WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AREA SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 50W-
64W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM 30N42W
TO 29N50W TO 29N60W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FRI
MORNING DRIFTING NE AND N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION BY SUN
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL E OF THE TROUGH WHILE A
NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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