[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 6N17W AND 5N21W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N21W TO 5N30W AND 6N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N
BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 92W/93W IS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE LINE
29N89W 24N92W 21N97W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
31N83W TO 26N91W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH...
KVBS...KVAF...KGHB...KATP...AND KIPN. KGVX...KXIH...AND KVBS
ALSO ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

EDINBURG AND HARLINGEN IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS
AND FOG COVER TEXAS FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA...AND
NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3
MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...AND 1 MILE OR LESS IN FOG FROM PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI TO GULF SHORES ALABAMA...TO PANAMA CITY IN FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY INLAND FROM HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SAME INLAND AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FROM REMNANT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EASTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 78W AND 79W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.85 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
11N SOUTHWARD FROM 78W EASTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SPANS HISPANIOLA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/A SHEAR
AXIS THAT IS INLAND FROM HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL START TO DIG...FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWARD...MORE AND MORE WITH TIME...TOWARD
18N60W...AT THE 36-HOUR MARK IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL START TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD...AFTER 18 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH
WILL GIVE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL END UP
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD...GIVING HISPANIOLA NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...RELATED TO A GULF OF MEXICO TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N63W...TO 30N65W TO 26N69W...TO CUBA NEAR
22N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N71W IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BEYOND 32N54W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N60W 17N64W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N
TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 46W AND 70W.

THE REMNANT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 24N35W TO 14N46W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N22W TO 25N29W AND 16N39W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 28N60W 17N64W SURFACE
TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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