[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N30W TO 7N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO
12N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN TO 85W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER FL AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE AT 31N83W TO 30N90W TO 27N97W. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
FOG ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N96W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
EFFECTS OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY NORTH OF THE GULF DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND A
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL
PENINSULA...OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HISPANIOLA. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N77W TO 10N77W. THIS TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
74W AND 83W. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS COMBINING WITH THE MOIST
SW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...EXTENDING FROM 17N63W TO 13N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL BASIN WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
COMBINING WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL
PENINSULA AND OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO 67W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W TO 75W. TO THE EAST OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUD COVER IS BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND WELL INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE BELOW THIS
MOISTURE FEED...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 21N61W.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W
TO 30N48W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS TO 31N39W. RECENT QUICKSCAT DATA SHOWS NE WINDS OVER 20
KT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTS...WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 KT TO THE
S OF THE FRONTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE FRONTS. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 60W WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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