[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W TO
5N23W 7N36W AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W...
AND FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W...AND FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 107W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W
WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N78W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N80W...TOWARD THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITHIN 400 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 28N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N88W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE OFF THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF MEXICO...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KGVX...
KXIH...KVBS...KEMK...KGUL...KATP...KVOA. ICAO STATIONS KEIR...
KSPR...AND KBVE ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. PATCHES
OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
DIFFERENT SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. PATCHES OF VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG
ARE IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
TO ALABAMA...TO FLORIDA IN PENSACOLA...CRESTVIEW. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W...TO 28N71W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 19N83W...
INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
23N64W TO 21N65W...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N67W AND TO
7N66W IN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
32N70W-TO-HONDURAS TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 18N60W 15N62W 12N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 58W
AND 64W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 78W/79W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE NEARBY MONSOON
TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
7N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS HISPANIOLA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT CROSSES CUBA INTO HONDURAS.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE FOR
THE FIRST 30 HOURS TO 36 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD...STILL WITH
A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W...TO 28N71W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 19N83W...
INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N55W 23N59W 20N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N64W TO 21N65W...ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N67W AND TO 7N66W IN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N70W 25N67W BEYOND 32N60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 30N47W 23N49W 18N48W 14N47W AND 12N47W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N55W 23N59W 20N61W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 31N TO 33N
BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM TO ON
EITHER SIDE OF 31N40W 26N45W 14N47W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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