[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W AND 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N19W TO 4N24W 8N36W AND 5N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N49W
9N51W 5N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
10N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W
AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 14N
BETWEEN 10W AND 50W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 108W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W
WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N85W IN
FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N86W. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N82W 25N86W 25N97W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N90W AND 23N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...
TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF MEXICO...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXIH AND KVBS
AND KDLP AND KBVE WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG...KEIR...KSPR...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MUCH OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS...FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA SOUTHWARD. AREAS OF
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND SOME LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...AND IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AREAS OF
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA...TO PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W...TO 29N74W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 19N83W...
INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 20N FROM 80W WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
23N64W TO 21N65W...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N67W AND TO
7N66W IN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
32N70W-TO-HONDURAS TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 18N60W 15N62W 12N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
58W AND 63W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N80W 13N80W 11N78W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND
77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W
AND 77W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN
78W AND 84W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS HISPANIOLA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT CROSSES CUBA INTO HONDURAS.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN
SANTIAGO. RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE FOR
THE FIRST 30 HOURS TO 36 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD...STILL WITH
A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W...TO 29N74W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 19N83W...
INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
31N71W 28N72W 24N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N64W TO 21N65W...ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N67W AND TO 7N66W IN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N73W 26N67W BEYOND 32N62W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 19N TO 26N. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 30N47W 23N49W 18N48W 14N47W AND 12N47W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 30N42W AND 29N50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N45W 24N48W 14N46W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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