[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 74N32W TO 8N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-40W WITH CLUSTERS WITHIN 300 NM
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 31N-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION TO OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO TO FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA COVERING
THE ENTIRE GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER MOBILE
BAY ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 29N90W 28N95W TO
A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1017 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES S OF THE LOW TO 23N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM E OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE LOW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 22N96W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. THE IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE FRONT/LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S OVER THE GULF
FROM THE SE CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS OVER W CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
VENEZUELA ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN N OVER THE INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM 15N81W TO 11N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 71W-82W FROM
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO HISPANIOLA AND W CUBA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 71W AND THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W
OF 82W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH E OF 80W THROUGH
FRI AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE
CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W
OVER W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 25N65W
TO BEYOND 32N60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES EXTENDING FROM 29N77W TO 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 66W-
75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N45W TO 23N54W SUPPORTING A DYING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 32N44W ALONG 27N50W TO 21N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 20N W OF 45W TO THE
FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NW ATLC. A BROAD
INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG OR ABOUT 60W THU AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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