[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N30W TO 6N42W TO 8N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER TX/MEXICO WHILE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
NEAR 30N89W AND ACROSS THE NW GULF TO 28N95 AND THEN TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NW OF
THIS FRONT. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATE THE GULF TO THE SE OF THE FRONT. N TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N92W TO 19N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND MOVE INLAND WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 20N87W
TO 16N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND HONDURAS. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N80W TO
10N81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE INTERACTING WITH THE SW CARIBBEAN
SURFACE TROUGH AND A MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND
82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FREE OF
DEEP CONVECTION. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN AWAY FROM CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND SPREAD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND
WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER FL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TOUGH OVER FL IS SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN
67W TO 77W INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 53W SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 21N61W AND
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N48W TO 21N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N58W TO 17N59W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH WITH
CONVECTION. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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