[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Dec 2 00:05:24 CST 2014

AXNT20 KNHC 020604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
7N30W 7N40W 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...AND FROM 2N
TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 8N25W 6N29W...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W
AND 89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 91W EASTWARD...
AND FROM 30N93W 19N92W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N72W...THROUGH 32N78W...
ACROSS GEORGIA...FLORIDA... ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FROM
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 06 HOURS IS FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGVX...KXIH...KCRH...KVAF...KEMK...KGBK...KEIR...KGRY...KIPN...
AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST PLAINS.
VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO COASTAL ALABAMA...AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA...LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA TO NAPLES. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N62W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SHEAR AXIS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 21N60W TO 20N64W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
70W AND 76W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 54W AND 61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INLAND IN CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N82W 15N81W
11N82W WESTWARD...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.01 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...IN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND
81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
24N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SHEAR AXIS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS ALONG 21N60W 20N64W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
70W AND 76W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 54W AND 61W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND
SANTIAGO. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA AT
02/0300 UTC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AS A RIDGE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 12 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH A
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA WITH A LARGE-SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
26N58W...TO A 24N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N64W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 29N46W
26N50W AND 21N60W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS ALONG 21N60W 20N64W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 25N50W 18N61W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N51W 15N64W TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO
27N13W TO A 19N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 6N35W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N72W...THROUGH 32N78W...
ACROSS GEORGIA...FLORIDA... ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
24N39W AND 17N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net