[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Dec 2 05:59:08 CST 2014

AXNT20 KNHC 021158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 7N30W
6N40W 4N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 22W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 7N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...PASSING THROUGH GEORGIA...FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 91W
EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 91W EASTWARD.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE BORDER AREA OF THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 93W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N68W...THROUGH 33N78W...
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...
ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST PLAINS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...AND
KVOA. ICAO STATIONS KEIR AND KSPR ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AND PATCHY AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 3
MILES OR LESS AND FOG...ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT SOME SITES THAT ARE
AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. THE VISIBILITIES ARE 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND INCLUDING SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. EARLIER LOW VISIBILITIES THAT WERE IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA HAVE CLEARED UP DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
FLORIDA IN...DESTIN...MARIANNA...AND APALACHICOLA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N62W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SHEAR LINE IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N58W TO 20N63W 19N67W...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W
AND 75W...AND OFF THE COASTS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WELL TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INLAND IN CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM
79W WESTWARD TO THE COASTS OF THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.01 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD TO LAND FROM 80W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
23N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SHEAR LINE IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N58W TO 20N63W 19N67W...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W
AND 75W...AND OFF THE COASTS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WELL TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AS A RIDGE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 12 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH A
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA WITH A LARGE-SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO
27N55W...TO A 23N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N64W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N50W
25N53W AND 22N58W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N58W TO 20N63W 19N67W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N50W TO
24N54W 21N55W 19N57W 17N61W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 39W AND THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 28N.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N50W 18N64W TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N16W...TO A 19N25W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 12N31W AND 6N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N68W...THROUGH 33N78W...
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM 37N28W...
THROUGH 32N29W TO 21N29W AND 12N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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