[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N34W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AT 01/2100 UTC FROM
PORT ARTHUR TO CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA ACROSS NE
FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TEXAS FRONT IS USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N81W TO 26N89W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E
TONIGHT THEN STALL EARLY TUE FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING N LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN NE OVER
THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S TO
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-22N W OF 79W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH WED.

HISPANIOLA...
A SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND AND
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST ALONG THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE ISLAND WAS COMPLIMENTS OF THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND
GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO
BEYOND 32N68W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
NEAR 32N43W ALONG 28N471W TO 25N523W WHERE A SHEAR AXIS IS
ANALYZED ALONG 23N56W 21N66W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 70W TO 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS E OF 62W. LINGERING MOISTURE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-72W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH ABOUT 225 NM W-NW BERMUDA AND WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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