[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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