[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 20N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT BETWEEN
23W-34W AND MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS
IMAGERY FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF
14N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
41W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 19N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT
BETWEEN 50W-60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WAVE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...IT
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 20N74W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. MOST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
81W-87W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
09N32W TO A 1012 LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N43W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N90W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO BASE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N101W.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY... AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-
91W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF 27N82W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE SW GULF WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY
IMPACT BEING INCREASED CONVECTION AND SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 25N69W SW TO OVER EASTERN CUBA TO 17N85W THAT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CONCENTRATION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS FOCUSED W OF 75W AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-223N BETWEEN 78W-90W...INCLUDING COASTAL
CUBA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION...AND JAMAICA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 60W OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER
EXHIBITS RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN
60W-70W...AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-
66W THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF 70W
WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGER TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLAND...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NW OF THE ISLAND. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
REMAINING IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD WITHIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS W OF 70W OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE NE FLOW IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W AND SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N69W. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N...A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 32N72W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN
50W-66W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING NEAR 25N68W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N25W TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N43W TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DOES DIP INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING SW TO 29N39W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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