[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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