[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED 200 NM MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N62W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN W FROM THE LOW FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A GALE
WARNING IS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N29W TO 11N28W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN
AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 26N63W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 18N62W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N28W TO 11N28W TO 08N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N40W TO 09N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-14N E OF 22W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 41W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR
29N90W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT WINDS UP TO
15 KT W OF 90W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF CUBA SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 25N E OF 83W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS NW OF
BARBUDA...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18N62W. MID-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE SEE
ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA
AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER IS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED
BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS
CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT ALONG THE WATERS CLOSE TO COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE
SPECIAL FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE ADJACENT WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACH
THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...PEAKING BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 25N WHICH
IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA

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