[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N65W...
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N65W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS... AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHEN THE LOW CENTER MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
FORM DURING THE WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY. PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SITUATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WEATHER SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. THE CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
HIGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST.
THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...
0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
19N65W. WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET WITHIN
60 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO
21N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 27N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
28W AND 33W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 10N30W AND 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N39W
TO 7N50W AND 8N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
AFRICA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N23W 8N35W 8N40W
8N46W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W
WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N102W IN MEXICO. PART OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 24N102W CENTER COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE U.S.A.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N71W...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N89W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST. THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO... 0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO
BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...EARLIER SCATTERED STRONG THAT WAS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
SAME AREA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N51W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N21W...TO A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N33W...TO 30N50W...28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE WIND AND SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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