[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED 230 NM MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE NEAR
18N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 23N60W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MAINLY NW FROM THE LOW FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A GALE
WARNING IS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR
CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N28W TO 12N28W MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS
ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N60W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 18N59W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N28W TO 08N35W TO 08N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N40W TO 09N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
10N E OF 22W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE NE GULF NEAR
29N87W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15 KT WINDS UP TO
20 KT W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WEST CUBA SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE S OF 25N E OF 89W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE SEE ABOVE. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN CUBA AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN
CUBA AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND/OR STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS CENTER CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 10-
15 KT ARE ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ALONG THE WATERS CLOSE TO
COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING THE
GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY IS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACH THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 23N WHICH
IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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