[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 22N TO A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N23W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N68W...THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N67W...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
10N67W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W IN PUERTO
RICO...AND IN ITS COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 25N84W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...TO 19N83W AND 13N83W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20
KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
16N80W...TO A 13N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
OF 19N81W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
14N NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 79W AND 87W.
NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WITHIN 30 NM
TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N86W TO 12N88W TO EL SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 22N92W...ACROSS AND BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
22N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 17N16W TO 10N30W AND 10N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N43W
TO 11N55W AND THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SENEGAL AND MAURITANIA FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N95W...IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N106W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM
90W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
COASTAL BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
26N61W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KIKT...AND AT KMDJ DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE
NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 25N84W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...TO 19N83W AND 13N83W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20
KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
16N80W...TO A 13N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
OF 19N81W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
14N NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 79W AND 87W.
NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WITHIN 30 NM
TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N86W TO 12N88W TO EL SALVADOR.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 73W EASTWARD...IN AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WESTWARD
WITH TIME...DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES...WAS 0.05 FOR GUADELOUPE...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND
77W IN COLOMBIA AND IN ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. A
THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE ONTO
THE ISLAND. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN HAITI
TOWARD CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME...SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL START ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...RELATED
TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA/CUBA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 32N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N61W INTO AND BEYOND COASTAL GEORGIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 2.01 FOR BERMUDA...
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N
BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W
25N41W 18N45W 10N47W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N35W...TO 30N46W 26N61W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
FEET FROM 19N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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