[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N22W TO
19N20W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 17W-25W AS DEPICTED IN THE SENEGAL
RAWINDSONDES AND THE GFS ANALYSIS. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS SOUTH
OF A 30-40 KT AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NOTED IN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N59W TO 20N61W MOVING W AT ABOUT 20
KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MAXIMA
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.  HOWEVER...AS THE 700 MB TROUGH
AXIS IS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES FARTHER WEST...THE WAVE MAY NEED
TO BE RELOCATED AT 0000 UTC.  A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND
DUST FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS SOUTH OF 13N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N81W TO 21N81W MOVING W AT ABOUT 20
KT. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...
THOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOWS DISTINCTLY IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH A MAXIMUM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.  A PORTION
OF WAVE/S ENERGY FRACTURED TO THE NORTH AND IS ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 24N74W. VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...
HOWEVER...CONVECTION NEARBY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA HAS BEEN ENHANCED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY
BE DUE TO SOME FORCING FROM THE WAVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIURNAL
AFTERNOON OVER LAND HEATING.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N95W TO 21N93W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10
KT. LARGELY LOCATED WITHIN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION...THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH PROGRESSING
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE EAST
PACIFIC WATERS. MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LIES IN
THE PACIFIC BASIN.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION NEARBY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA HAS BEEN ENHANCED THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO SOME FORCING FROM THE WAVE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DIURNAL AFTERNOON OVER LAND HEATING.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR 11N22W TO 10N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 N SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
25W AND 30W. THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COSTA RICA FROM 10N84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH
INCLUDING OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N95W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN
OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N TO 90W THEN NEAR
THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER...IT ALLOWS FOR WEAK ENOUGH E-SE
MOIST LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N WEST OF 90W. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ALONG 27N THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 81W WITH SATELLITE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATING MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS BETWEEN 74W-82W THIS EVENING.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME... HOWEVER...CONVECTION NEARBY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA HAS BEEN ENHANCED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY BE DUE TO SOME FORCING FROM THE WAVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DIURNAL AFTERNOON OVER LAND HEATING. FARTHER SOUTH...THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA FROM 10N84W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING OVER
COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS SOUTH
OF 13N.  OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BETWEEN 65W-72W BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZE EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
ONE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER EAST
CENTRAL HAITI WITH DISSIPATING LOW-TOPPED CUMULUS ELSEWHERE. A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION...BETWEEN
TWO TROPICAL WAVES. HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE
LESSER ANTILLES NOW MOVES EASTWARD...THIS WILL BE BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO HISPANIOLA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THAT SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 36N50W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 33N57W THAT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 32N TO 33N76W THEN A WARM FRONT TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N78W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOSTLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N WEST OF
60W.  OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N55W ALONG 27N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
MOSTLY FAIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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