[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N21W TO
20N17W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 12W-27W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS SOUTH OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
16N17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN
21W-26W...AND FROM 11N-14W BETWEEN 18W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 11W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO 20N59W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
STRETCHING EAST TO 55W. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST
FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 54W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N79W TO 19N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...WITH A
PORTION OF ENERGY FRACTURING TO THE NORTH AND ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W TO 23N73W. THE WAVE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-
21N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N93W TO 22N92W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
LARGELY LOCATED WITHIN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION...THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH PROGRESSING
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE EAST
PACIFIC WATERS. WHILE MOST CONVECTION LIES IN THE PACIFIC
BASIN...THE PRESENCE OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
90W-93W THIS AFTERNOON.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR
11N20W TO 11N31W TO 09N39W TO 10N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 11N52W TO 08N59W.
ALL CONVECTION REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N94W THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 25N TO 90W AND
THEN TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W...IT ALLOWS
FOR WEAK ENOUGH E-SE MOIST LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 92W-97W. TO THE
SOUTH...THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W IS ALSO
PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 90W-95W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W
PROVIDING AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FOR A LARGE
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 25N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED N OF
27N BETWEEN 82W-90W. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AND MAINTAIN
ALONG 27N THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 79W WITH SATELLITE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATING MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS BETWEEN 74W-84W THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WAVE...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 75W-82W. OTHERWISE...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE
AXIS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
FARTHER SOUTH...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 10N AND
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF
11N BETWEEN 76W-82W...INCLUDING EASTERN PANAMA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W
IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
OCCURRING S OF 12N E OF 62W...INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BETWEEN 64W-74W BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. AS THE INFLUENCE FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W MOVES WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THE
ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTMS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 36N50W SW TO 32N60W THAT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 32N74W THEN A WARM FRONT INTO A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N78W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOSTLY STATIONARY
FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
55W-80W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N50W ALONG 26N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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