[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CUBA-TO-JAMAICA...TO 10N77W TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN
70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM
JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 92W/93W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...PASSING
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MEXICO...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 93W AND 100W
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND ACROSS EL SALVADOR...
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE SHORES OF
EASTERN HONDURAS...AND WEAKENING/DISSIPATING IN BELIZE AND
HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL...TO 11N30W AND 9N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N43W TO 7N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A GULF OF MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W TO A SECOND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N103W IN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N
TO 24N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL...ELSEWHERE FROM 25N
NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
25N60W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KBQX. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1
MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KHQI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CUBA-TO-JAMAICA...TO 10N77W TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN
70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM
JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND
ACROSS EL SALVADOR... INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE SHORES OF EASTERN HONDURAS...AND
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING IN BELIZE AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N70W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 64W
AND 76W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND
78W IN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF URABA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET S OF 15N
BETWEEN 67W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A CUBA-TO-JAMAICA...TO 10N77W TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN
70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N78W CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM
JAMAICA TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END
OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW...WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 32N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N68W BEYOND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N FROM
50W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.12 IN BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 30N
BETWEEN 50W AND 63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N70W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND 76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N36W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N
BETWEEN 29W AND 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N37W...TO 30N41W 25N60W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. A
SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
FEET FROM 18N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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