[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W FROM 22N TO A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N24W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. SCATTERED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 16N
BETWEEN 13W AND 27W...INCLUDING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N69W...THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE/ACROSS THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. ...TO 16N67W...TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N67W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO IS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 24N86W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N81W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N80W...TO A 13N81W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...BEYOND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR AS 79W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 22N94W...ACROSS AND BEYOND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
GULF WATERS FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND
93W TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 105W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 17N16W TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
13N24W...TO 10N30W AND 10N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N47W TO
12N58W...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 12N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W
AND 53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 13W AND 27W...INCLUDING THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24W/25W TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N95W...IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N106W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL
BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
26N58W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVAF...AND AT KVBS DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

CRESTVIEW FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS REPORTING A LOW
CLOUD CEILING AND A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG/HAZE.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE
FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN SARASOTA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N69W...THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE/ACROSS THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. ...TO 16N67W...TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N67W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO IS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 24N86W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N81W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N80W...TO A 13N81W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...BEYOND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR AS 79W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 73W EASTWARD...IN AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...WESTWARD WITH TIME...DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.05 FOR GUADELOUPE...FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
ANTIGUA/BARBUDA...SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 77W IN COLOMBIA AND IN ITS COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE
GULF OF URABA TO COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE ONTO
THE ISLAND. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN HAITI
TOWARD CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME...SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL START ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...RELATED
TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA/CUBA RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND
75W. THIS AREA IS ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG 32N/33N FROM 60W
WESTWARD BEYOND COASTAL GEORGIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 26N60W 26N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES...WAS 2.01 FOR BERMUDA... FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N
BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W
25N41W 18N45W 10N47W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N33W...TO 30N42W 26N58W...WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W
AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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