[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N29W TO
11N29W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE AREA OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AROUND THE WAVE BUT SOME
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT. THE PRESENCE
OF SAHARAN DUST IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N54W TO
9N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 51W-60W.

LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER S BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 23N73W TO 11N74W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS FROM N
HONDURAS AT 16N86W TO TO THE E PACIFIC AT 8N87W MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER N HONDURAS
FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 84W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W
TO 8N33W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N33W TO 8N40W TO 11N55W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 19W-27W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 28N88W WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 22N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N93W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 89W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE SE OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION
OVER THE SW GULF...AND AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N
OF JAMAICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION...ALSO
EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI DUE TO A TROPICAL
WAVE. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ON THU.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM
28N-31N BETWEEN 79W-81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM
31N70W TO 28N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
29N54W TO 25N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 52W-56W. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE S BAHAMAS...ANOTHER LARGE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT
15N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net