[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N31W TO
9N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE AREA OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AROUND THE WAVE BUT SOME
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT. THE PRESENCE
OF SAHARAN DUST IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N56W TO
9N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 53W-61W.

LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER S BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N75W TO 10N75W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS FROM N
HONDURAS AT 16N88W TO TO THE E PACIFIC AT 8N88W MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE
OVER W HONDURAS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W
TO 10N25W TO 8N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N35W TO 10N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF ALABAMA NEAR 27N87W WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22N90W TO S MEXICO AT 17N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 96W-98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SW
GULF...AND AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 74W-79W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR
22N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION E OF JAMAICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION...ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST S OF HAITI DUE TO A TROPICAL
WAVE. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ON THU AND FRI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO 28N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N54W TO
25N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 52W-
56W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N36W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BESIDES THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE S BAHAMAS...ANOTHER LARGE LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N20W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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