[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE LAST ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS ISSUED AT
06/1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N27W TO 11N28W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREA OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AROUND THE
WAVE BUT SOME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT.
THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO
9N53W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS OCCURRING
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-57W WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 23N69W TO 12N70W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER
HISPANIOLA ALONG AND JUST W OF WAVE AXIS. NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE IS MOVING IN PHASE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N71W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER
NICARAGUA ALONG WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W
TO 8N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N35W TO 10N53W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NW OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W
MOVING NW AND A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO
21N91W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO MOST OF THE BASIN WITH SMALL AREA OF MUCH DRIER
SUBSIDENT AIR EVIDENT IN FAR NW GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 93W. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION
FOCUSING AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGHS SUPPORT TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE
BASIN...ONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DISCUSSED
IN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE FROM
DRY MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE
REGION WITH ASCAT DATA SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF 20 KT WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS FORECAST
TO MOVE W-NW INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED WITH ITS NORTHERN
EXTENT REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THU. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 53W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND IS ENHANCING HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. MORE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THU.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY / SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO 25N80W AND ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
BROAD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IN
PHASE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N71W.
FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A TUTT LOW CENTERED NEAR
27N53W IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
30N52W TO 25N54W AND ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N32W DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH CONVERGENCE ZONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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