[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 72.6W AT 03/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 130 NM SE OF SAN SALVADOR MOVING NW AT 16 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SEE THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N45W TO 21N46W MOVING W AT 25-30
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-
52W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO 18N59W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING THAT
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE ZONAL. THE WAVE HAS NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 9N23W TO 10N34W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 12N46W TO 7N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-41W...AND FROM
11N-12N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO ALABAMA. BROAD TROUGH COVERS
MUCH OF THE SE CONUS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
NEW ORLEANS TO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SW INTO GULF WATERS
TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRIGGERING ISOLATED CONVECTION EXTENDS SW FROM 26N86W TO 25N91W
TO 21N95W. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W-93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE
GULF S OF 25N E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND A
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
SEA MERGE WITH THE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ALREADY IN PLACE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVING NW AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TWO
PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN THE REGION ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N88W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 11N81W. THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-87W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W
INCLUDING NW COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT E OF 75W AND 5-15 KT W OF 75W...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THIS AREA OF
STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ISLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS IT MOVES
FARTHER AWAY. THEREAFTER...THE USUAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST BY MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
TRACKING NW NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT
N-NW TOWARD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SE CONUS.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA THAT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 78W-82W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-31N W OF 75W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT NW THROUGH MONDAY. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N52W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING SE OF THE UPPER LOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. THE REST
OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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