[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 73.2W AT 03/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 84 NM SE OF SAN SALVADOR MOVING NW AT 16 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 69W-74W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE STORM LOCATION. SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
EVENING. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 17N16W TO 9N17W AND IS BEING
ENGULFED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 12N. SOUTH OF 12N...A
DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ENHANCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION SW OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 19W-22W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 19W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 750 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N47W TO 10N48W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT.
PATCHES OF DRY SAHARAN AIR ARE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS
INHIBITING CONVECTION  AT THE TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N59W TO 10N61W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS
IT IS MOVING ACROSS DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE REPORTING DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS WHILE ST KITS
AND DOMINICA ARE REPORTING SOME SHOWERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N15W TO 7N26W TO 10N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N38W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N48W TO 6N57W.
ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BASE
EXTENDING TO NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N90W TO 21N94W. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO ENHANCING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1013 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N92W FROM WHICH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N93W TO 24N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N88W
TO 14N91W...WHICH IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
GREAT PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA AS WELL AS NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A
MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT A 1011 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N80W TO 27N80W 24N83W TO 22N84W. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS WELL AS S OF 25N E
OF 87W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NE OVER ATLC WATERS TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
AGAIN ACROSS THE BASIN BY WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 77W IS GENERATING
A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS ALONG
WITH MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE ZONE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE PASSAGE AND NW HAITI.
THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE ALSO SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL
JAMAICA. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER JAMAICA AND SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTION S OF 13N.
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER CUBA...THUS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEE
THE WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE
MOISTURE IN THE REGION IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE PASSAGE AND NW HAITI AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WHICH IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF
76W. PART OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHICH WILL BE MOVING
NE TO SW N ATLC WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE IN THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS N OF THE AREA DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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