[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 71.8W AT 03/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 40 NM W OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING NW AT 18 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 67W-72W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N43W TO 21N43W MOVING W AT 25-30
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-
52W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO 18N57W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING THAT
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE ZONAL. THE WAVE HAS NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
TO 10N24W TO 12N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 10N46W TO 05N52. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 24W-32W...AND FROM
06N-13N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWARD COVERING MUCH OF THE SE
CONUS. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST TO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR
30N93W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SW INTO THE GULF WATERS
TO 27N95W THEN WEST TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 27N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF
FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 90W-94W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 86W...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-90W. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW
CARIBBEAN SEA MERGE WITH THE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ALREADY IN
PLACE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS IT
TRACKS NW TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN
68W-72W THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE TWO PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N87W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N79W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF
20N BETWEEN 78W-86W. TO THE SOUTH...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N
BETWEEN 75W-86W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. FINALLY...TRADES NOT
DISRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF BERTHA ARE FORECAST IN THE RANGE
OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 75W AND 5 TO 15 KT W OF 75W...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W.
THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND E OF 72W AS THE STORM
TRACKS TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE USUAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST BY
MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA TRACKING NW CURRENTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 66W-72W. FARTHER NW...MID-LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO DRIFT N-NW TOWARD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO
27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 76W-83W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-31N W OF 75W. THIS ENERGY AND SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW AND MERGE WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N52W THAT SUPPORTS A 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N61W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 29N-37N
BETWEEN 45W-56W...LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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