[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N20W TO 2N25W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF
13W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS W MISSOURI TO E TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS NW GULF FROM 29N93W TO INLAND OVER SE TEXAS
BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS AND
CONTINUES TO BE AMPLIFIED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF
29N BETWEEN 84W-91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW E OF 90W. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATE AS IT RETREATS N TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON TUE REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
THIS AFTERNOON. SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE LADEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 79W-86W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W TO S
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES OF REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP E/W ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WILL DIG S OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
LATE TUE AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL AGAIN
GIVE HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N72W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 28N
BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N36W TO 27N42W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG
25N51W TO 23N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE COLD FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
32N61W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N70W TO BEYOND 32N73W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PRECEDES THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 27N67W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH E OF
THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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