[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N17W TO 01N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 01N28W TO 03S39W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 01S-07N BETWEEN 12W-28W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S-03N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTHERN CUBA IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-29N E OF 85W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W
OF 93W. A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S...INCLUDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN
LATE TUE MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS INCREASED THE S-SE WIND FLOW W OF 87W TO 20-
25 KT. RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT LIGHTER WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N-NE WEST OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SSMI TPW IMAGERY
INDICATE MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20-
25 KT WHILE A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN
SUPPORTS WINDS OF 10-15 KT. ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TSTMS IS OCCURRING S OF 11N W OF
81W...PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE
ISLAND HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SHALLOW CLOUDS EXTENDING TO SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N71W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY NE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N61W SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N59W SW TO 27N67W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N39W SW TO 24N46W TO 22N54W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 37N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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