[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N18W TO 02N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 01N28W TO 01S35W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 01S-09N BETWEEN 10W-22W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-05N BETWEEN 22W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 05S-01N W OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
CONUS IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THUS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-28N E OF 88W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W
OF 93W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUPPORT A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TO INCLUDE THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN LATE TUE MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS INCREASED THE S-
SE WIND FLOW OVER THE NW GULF TO 20-25 KT. RETURN FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC
SUPPORT LIGHTER WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N-NE WEST OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SSMI TPW IMAGERY
INDICATE MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIGGER ANTILLES
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND
OF PUERTO RICO IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO ITS
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT WHILE A MORE
RELAXED GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 10-
15 KT. ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 11N W OF 80W...ACTIVITY LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE
ISLAND HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SHALLOW CLOUDS EXTENDING TO SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
30N74W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY NE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N61W SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 30N60W SW TO 28N66W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N40W SW TO 25N48W TO 22N55W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
27N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 37N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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