[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 5N24W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N24W TO 00N34W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE PRIME
MERIDIAN FROM 3N-1S BETWEEN 0W-3W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-
2S BETWEEN 23W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST EXTENDING FROM HOUSTON TO BROWNSVILLE. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY
VOID OF CONVECTION. ONLY 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N95W TO TAMPICO
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...50-70 KT ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER WITH STRONG CONVECTION MOVES E FROM LOUISIANA TO
GEORGIA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALL ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER S GUATEMALA...OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE
SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 32N59W TO 30N67W. THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 27N65W. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO MOSTLY
VOID OF CONVECTION. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N37W TO 27N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N17W. OF NOTE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONTS. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC FRONT TO SWING SE AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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